Is Gen Z moving more towards the Republican Party? It is a question many have been asking and something some are taking note of for the 2026 election predictions. 

Something important to note is the difference in political leaning between Gen Z voters who grew up before COVID-19 and those who grew up after. Many older members of the generation (22-29) typically hold more liberal views, while younger members (18-21) have increasingly shifted to the right. 

Prior to the pandemic, Gen Z was seen as being widely liberal; however, things began to shift during the lockdowns, as young people’s lives were shaken and some even destroyed due to increased depression and suicide rates at the time. The younger generations often blame the Democratic Party for causing the lockdown to extend for as long as it did, and have turned to the right as a result. This was seen in the 2024 presidential election with a surge of support for President Trump. Therefore, it is very likely that this shift in viewpoints among younger generations will play a large role in the Midterms.  

But what is the Midterm Election? Midterms are set to determine who is elected to the 435 seats in the House of Representatives for the two-year term. The elected individuals will be inaugurated into the 120th Congress in early January 2027. The majority party will govern congressional committees, and the President’s ability to advance his agenda depends on whether his party controls both houses of Congress. 

Currently, projections for the upcoming November 3rd election are leaning toward Republicans. According to 270 To Win’s forecast, the Republican Party presently controls the U.S. House, and 218 seats are needed for a majority. Their consensus forecast places the Democrats at 201 seats, the Republicans at 214, and 20 seats still a toss-up. Meanwhile, their current forecast shows Democrats at 213, Republicans at 219, and 3 seats as toss-ups. 

Additionally, due to President Trump’s call for redistricting ahead of the election, Republicans will likely gain 5 more seats. Though the call to redraw its congressional districts has caused some contention, as it is typically done only once a decade, right after a census, some states have no rules against redistricting more frequently, and many have begun to do so. Texas was the first, followed by Democrats in California and Republicans in Missouri. Due to the redistricting, Democrats will need to gain three seats in the Midterm to take control of the House. There is a chance they could win, but it would be a significant struggle. 

Now the question becomes, how do Gen Z feel about the election? An Axios article noted a focus group study of 18–25-year-old voters in Pennsylvania’s Lehigh Valley. This area tends to swing during the election season. In the group, several Gen Zers said they are Republicans or do not align with either party. No one during the discussion outright claimed to be a Democrat; however, some presented some progressive outlooks. Organizers later noted that seven participants were Democrats, six were independents, and four were Republicans.

Several people in the group admitted that they were not focused heavily on the midterm or statewide elections, as they were only taught to concentrate on the presidential election. The young adults acknowledged that many people in their generation did not often vote in local elections. 

“There’s a huge wave of our generation who does not go out and vote in our local elections,” said Margaret, a 23-year-old Democrat.

A few speakers at the event expressed dissatisfaction with the two-party system, saying the candidate did not focus on the issues that actually affected their lives. And many more are actively choosing to tune out the news due to aggressive political tensions.  

Due to Gen Z growing up through a very polarizing time in American history with the COVID-19 lockdowns, the attempted assassination of President Trump, and the assassination of Charlie Kirk, many young voters are fearful of political violence increasing. There is also a growing feeling that freedom of speech is being restricted, and many are being silenced, especially by the Democratic Party.