With the government shutdown ending recently, two national guard troops shot in D.C., and the Thanksgiving Holiday, you would not be blamed for missing the headline: Trump says US will soon take action against Venezuelan drug traffickers on land. After all, our President says many things and Americans only have so much time. However, this is a serious threat that, if acted upon, would draw the U.S. into a War with Venezuela. The administration has loosely veiled its military buildup in the region under the guise of combating drug smuggling by the Cartel de Los Soles. Designated as a terrorist organization, the cartel has been alleged to be helmed by Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, although the extent of his involvement is unknown. In line with this mission of combating drug trafficking (dubbed Operation Southern Spear), a series of airstrikes on boats linked to narco activity have been sanctioned by the President, leading to over 80 deaths. Washington maintains that these attacks are legal under international law per their designation as a terrorist group, while many Democratic lawmakers, as well as the UN Human Rights Chief Volker Türk do not. Whether or not you think the President can take this action legally, the strikes continue, and leave Americans with the question: Are we about to go to war? Or is Trump simply turning up the heat on Maduro?
Analyzing the attacks and the stationed forces can give us clues to Trump’s rationale. As of now it seems that none of the alleged traffickers killed in the attacks were directly linked to the Venezuelan government, and it is debated who exactly these men are, with Maduro claiming they are just fishermen. Given the resources of American intelligence agencies and the knowledge that Maduro is only in office due to a rigged election, it is unlikely that these are just fishermen. Even if these men are cartel members–a question that survivors of the most recent U.S. strike who have been taken prisoner will shed light on– they are low-level drug runners, ages 15-24, whose deaths will not directly disrupt trafficking in the region. In fact, the drugs that were being smuggled appear to be cocaine, 90% of which is bound for Europe. If the administration is trying to prevent drug smuggling to the United States, these boats are a poor target.
However, they do allow for a legal justification, albeit a flimsy one, for the U.S. to show force to Venezuela. This is further supported by the 12,000 personnel, 15 naval vessels, and numerous aircraft including longrange bombers and fighter jets amassed in the region, overkill for Trump’s stated objective. What Trump is attempting is often referred to as gunboat diplomacy, a threat of overwhelming military action to impose a desirable foreign policy and a tactic famously used by President Theodore Roosevelt who used the might of the U.S. Navy to secure the building of the Panama Canal from the Colombian government. Trump’s intended goal is to compel Venezuela’s President to act in line with U.S. interests, or step down rather than risk being imprisoned or killed. Maduro himself seems to believe as much; not only has he called Trump’s bluff by criticizing Washington for trying to foment regime change while masking the true motive, i.e., the access to oil, but he has also responded with PR stunts such as dancing to a peace song. Maduro draws clever parallels with regime change in Iraq while attempting to create an image of someone trying to avoid war, playing on 70% of Americans’ objections to war with Venezuela. The phone call between the two leaders last week seems to imply that, despite their combative relationship, neither man is intent on war. But if negotiations fall through, is war possible?
Trump’s past foreign policy actions, whether it be direct action in Iran striking General Soleimani or the more passive tariffs that brought China to the bargaining table, speak to the President’s hesitancy to resort to war. Still, there is cause for concern. In the previous cases, Trump was dealing with much more well-armed and influential nations than Venezuela. Additionally, this show of force is not just for the small South American nation but also for the rest of the world. Looking back again at history, President Roosevelt used naval superiority off Venezuela’s coast to end a blockade by European powers, showing them that the U.S. was not afraid to use force. Similar to President Roosevelt who sent a warning to Britain and Germany, President Trump is showing Beijing and the Kremlin that the U.S. is not a paper tiger and will act when necessary. If negotiations with Maduro do not go his way, Trump may choose to make an example of Venezuela to deter China’s attempt to take Taiwan. In short, while unlikely, the President may have boxed himself into a corner that violence is the only way out of.
