Last week, the DNC’s Rules and Bylaws panel recommended that South Carolina again hold the first Democratic presidential primary on January 22nd in 2028 ahead of Nevada, New Hampshire, and other states. The impulse is understandable and, in part, admirable. The Democrats are trying to show loyalty to Black voters, who reliably vote for Democratic candidates and comprise a significant portion of South Carolina’s electorate. But, this is a mistake.

The move of putting South Carolina first is based on two main arguments: 

The first argument, which I have already alluded to, is that Black voters reliably vote for Democrats and the Democratic Party should reward that loyalty by giving them a chance to heavily influence which nominee is selected. This makes sense given that Iowa previously went first, which is a state with a predominantly white population. There is nothing wrong with that, but if Black voters are the ones who constantly show loyalty to Democrats, it is reasonable to reward them by letting them set the tone for how the presidential primary shapes up. 

The second argument is that this move is an investment in the South. Rather than having Democrats retreat from the South—a region where the Party has typically lost in recent decades—putting South Carolina first in the primary map will allow Democrats to build a deeper ground game in a state they have not won since 1976. “The South is not the past, we are the future,” said Christale Spain, chair of the South Carolina Democratic Party. “And if we are serious about changing this country, Democrats have to start winning in the South.” 

Both arguments have merits, but they miss something critical: South Carolina is not a swing state and the short to medium-term return on investment is low. South Carolina has not been won by a Democratic Presidential candidate in the last 50 years, and it is very unlikely to flip in the general election. If winning in 2028 is necessary for the Democrats, why invest in as long of a shot as South Carolina? If Democrats actually want to win, they should invest in a swing state to build the ground game early so that come the general election, they are in a far better position to win the White House.

One state stands out as a far better option: Georgia. As part of the South, it has a significant Black population and it is a large swing state. Georgia has all the elements that the Democratic leadership is arguing as a basis for choosing South Carolina, plus the fact that Georgia will actually play a large part in determining the winner of the presidential election in 2028.

In terms of Black voters, and their relative population within a state, Georgia actually performs better than South Carolina on this metric as shown by recent data from Pew Research:

While Black voters comprise 26% of eligible voters in South Carolina, in Georgia, that number is a much larger 33%. Thus, one of the main arguments to start the presidential primary schedule with South Carolina does not hold up against the data, especially when it is not even in the top five states with the highest share of Black voters.

Secondly, regarding the argument that Democrats should invest in the South, that is the right direction to move in. But why invest in South Carolina, which only has 9 electoral votes and has no chance of influencing the general election at the Presidential level, when we have at least two more viable alternatives? Georgia is part of the South, is a swing state, and provides 16 electoral votes. North Carolina, where 23% of eligible voters are Black, also provides 16 electoral votes and is a swing state.

South Carolina is clearly the wrong state for Democrats to invest in, especially in the immediate term. If Democrats truly want to win the general election, they should start with Georgia and North Carolina, thus setting the tone of the primary by rewarding candidates who can mobilize voters in two key swing states, not a state that will have no bearing on who wins the White House in 2028. 

Here is the bottom-line: Democrats keep insisting 2028 is existential. If they believe it, they should start the presidential primary in a state that will actually help them win it—and that state is Georgia, not South Carolina.