People Power

In our republic, “we the people” have the power. However, people’s power is not direct: it is wielded by voting in elections. 

Direct democracy is a fancy name for something called “mob rule.” In a Federal Republic, like ours, the representation of each state is essential to the integrity of the nation, hence the advent of the electoral college.

A side effect of this system is the concentration of importance in states–and therefore certain districts within them–whose partisan leaning is not solidified. The few swing voters in these select districts decide American elections.

This leaves our modified democracy in a strange position, where a few thousand unpredictable, politically apathetic and unsophisticated voters are the path to victory.

A Crystal Ball

Our election to determine the 47th President of the United States is less than a month away. While it is impossible to know for certain the outcome of the election, a likely outcome has presented itself.

Keys to the White House

In 1981, American historian Alan Lichtman collaborated with Russian seismologist Vladimir Keilis-Brook to create a system to predict American presidential elections. They devised a 13 point checklist that assesses the climate of American politics and its effect on elections.

Each key is a toss up and is won by circumstance and/or performance. Whichever candidate secures the most keys is the predicted victor. 

This system has correctly predicted every election since 1984, with the exception of the controversial 2000 election when Al Gore lost to George W. Bush. It has retroactively predicted elections as far back as 1860. 

We even used it to predict the upcoming 2024 election.

Keys to the White House 2024

1. Party Mandate

This key is earned if the incumbent party won more seats in the House during the most recent midterm than it had in the previous midterm.

Democrats won less seats in 2022 than in 2018, meaning that this key goes to former president Trump. 

2. No Primary Contest

If there is no contest for the incumbent party’s nomination, the key goes to that candidate. 

Vice President Harris simply inherited Biden’s nomination without struggle and received near-universal party endorsement. This key goes to Harris. 

3. Incumbent Seeking Reelection

Since Harris is not the actual incumbent President but is an incumbent party member, she does not receive this key. This key in fact belongs to the opposition: 2-1 Trump.

4. No Third Party

There is no legitimate third-party threat. Which means the incumbent party candidate, Harris, receives this key. We have a tied ball game. 

5. Strong Short-Term Economy

This key is complicated and is currently very debatable. While the economy is certainly in distress, it is not actually in recession (although many Americans consider it to be so). 

For this reason the key is neutral, as there is no clear winner in the eyes of the voters. Still 2-2. 

6. Strong Long-Term Economy

The real GDP-per-capita has increased under Biden-Harris. Despite the immense complexity of this key and the debate surrounding it, this key goes to Harris. 3-2.

7. Major Policy Change

This key is won if the incumbent party’s administration has made major policy deviations from the status quo. 

Biden’s administration has made significant changes such as the COVID-19 relief packages, as well as efforts to combat deindustrialization in the Rust Belt. Harris wins this key, making it 4-2. 

8. No Social Unrest

With the exception of occasional flare ups over Palestine, social unrest is at a minimum. This regional fixation is not as intense as the national uproar over the war in Vietnam or George Floyd’s death. It is 5-2 Harris.

9. No Scandal

As long as the incumbent party is free of outstanding scandals, they win this key. 

The issue regarding the FEMA response to Helene and Milton may result in a minor scandal, but nothing like Watergate or Trump’s first impeachment.

The backlash, like the hurricane, will blow over. Harris 6-2. 

10. No Foreign or Military Failure

Our Ukrainian proxy is losing ground and bleeding out slowly. The U.S. has supported Israel in setting the Middle East ablaze, and we embarrassed ourselves in Afghanistan– however this was actually Trump’s initiative.

None of these are truly decisive defeats. Which means Harris wins another key: 7-2.

11. Major Foreign or Military Success

There has not been any military success under Biden – Harris. If anything, there has been embarrassment, but not failure. The lack of obvious successes means this key goes to Trump. 7-3.

12. Charismatic Incumbent

This does not mean loosely charismatic. This means a Reagan, JFK or FDR level of charisma – a once in a lifetime kind of politician. Harris is certainly not that. Trump wins this key, 7-4.  

13. Uncharismatic Challenger

Trump, while funny and even charming at moments, is at best an order of magnitude below those considered once in a lifetime statesmen. His charisma has declined with age. This point goes to Harris, making it 8-4.

According to this system, Kamala Harris is the predicted winner of the 2024 Presidential Election. These interpretations are based on available data and important blanket generalizations.

Acknowledgement: the ideas expressed in this article are those of the individual author.