It’s always very risky making predictions in the early days after a military strike.
America was gung-ho to go to war with Afghanistan and Iraq, but after years of bloodshed and trillions spent, we came home with little to brag about.
I think it’s going to be different with Venezuela. Overnight, everything changes. A tyrant is now gone. Drug shipments to the U.S. will go down, as will Russian and Chinese influence in South America.
The U.S. will rebuild Venezuela’s oil infrastructure, and, soon enough, more oil will be available to the U.S. and especially to the Europeans, who found themselves dependent on Russian oil in recent decades — obviously not good, when Russia can shut down the pipeline whenever it likes.
The risk is that China will soon take Taiwan and Russia will be emboldened to make a Trump-style attack on Ukraine. Maybe the U.S. will soon take Cuba.
It feels like the three major superpowers now see dominance in their own regions as a smart and sustainable strategy. It’s not clear the U.S. can be nearly as dominant, militarily, in Europe, Asia or Africa.
It might take years for this to play out — and for us to know if this was a good move or not — but I think this move has the potential to go down in history as a positive game-changer for America and its allies. We also need to applaud our military for going such an amazing job.
Many Democrats are rushing in to say how bad this situation is — more proof Trump is dangerous and out of control. I think rushing to judgment is the real danger here.
Yes, bold action carries risk. So does doing nothing. Doing nothing seems safer in the moment, but then dictators like Maduro take advantage of the situation and grow in power over time. When we finally wake up and see how bad things have become, these situations become harder to un-do.
I have a particular soft spot in my heart for Venezuela, because several Venezuelans built the original software that went into TheLatest.com and OurNationalConversation.org.
For years, these software engineers — who became like family — told me how awful life was under Maduro. Several had to flee the country. Maybe soon they will be able to return home — to a happier, safer and more prosperous place.
Photo image: BBC