The Trump Administration may be unpopular, but Democrats are not guaranteed victory in the upcoming midterms.

In fact, a recent report by Harry Enten portrays Democrats as underperforming in the midterm polls.

Historically, in midterm years with Republican Presidents, polls showed that Democrats had a +11-percentage-point advantage in 2006 and a +10-percentage-point advantage in 2018. In 2026? Democrats only have a +5 advantage. 

Polls show that despite President Trump’s unpopularity, with an approval rating of just 38%, Democrats are not in a strong position to retake the House of Representatives.

Warning signs are clear; the blue wave is far from guaranteed. If Democrats are to retake Congress, they’ll need to give voters something to vote for, because Trump’s unpopularity alone isn’t enough fuel to propel them to victory.