Since 2016, Americans, particularly those on the right, have felt growing uncertainty about the level of security in our voting process. A 2022 Gallup poll found that while 85% of Democrats and 67% of Independents were confident in the election process only 40% of Republicans could say the same. Recently President Trump validated these concerns suggesting that we should “nationalize the voting,” calling for Republicans to “…take over the voting, the voting in at least many, 15 places.” Nationalizing voting is illegal, as stated expressly in Article I, Section 4, Clause 1 of the Constitution:

The Times, Places and Manner of holding Elections for Senators and Representatives, shall be prescribed in each State by the Legislature thereof; but the Congress may at any time by Law make or alter such Regulations, except as to the Places of chusing Senators

While Trump’s rhetoric has no legal standing,  the FBI’s search of Fulton County election offices for records pertaining to the 2020 election, shows that the President has more than just discontent for the election process. With Trump’s attacks on the process and some Americans’ lack of faith in the system, let’s examine voter fraud. 

According to expert Alice Clapman, senior counsel for voting rights at the Brennan Center for Justice, voter fraud “…almost never occurs on a scale that would affect an election outcome.” For the unfamiliar, the Brennan Center is “a independent, nonpartisan law and policy organization that works to reform, revitalize, and defend our country’s systems of democracy and justice,” which in 2007 published a comprehensive study that found Americans are more likely to be struck by lightning, than commit voter fraud.  

But that is an older study, and what about mail in voting? The Brookings institution, a nonpartisan think tank focused on “…policy strategies to create a more prosperous and secure country and world,” published a similar study that found “Cases of mail voting fraud are very rare, accounting for only 0.000043% of total mail ballots cast, or about four cases out of every 10 million mail votes.” You have about a one in a million chance of getting hit by lightning, so it seems the Brennan institute’s findings were right after all.

If these studies do not satisfy conservative Americans, they can look to the Heritage Foundation, the right wing think tank famous for Project 2025. The Heritage database has found 1,620 credible cases of voter fraud from 1982 to 2025. Over 42 years that’s about 38 cases a year, of all types of fraud, undocumented immigrant voting, using the name of a deceased voter, voting as a felon, voting as a non-resident, and voting as a minor. 

To put this data into perspective, in my home state of Minnesota, criticized by Republicans for not requiring ID to vote, the state senate special election’s closest race between Amanda Hemmingsen-Jaeger(D) and Dwight Dorau(R) came down to 5,144 votes. If all the illegitimate votes over 42 years were subtracted from the difference, the result would be the exact same. 

Of course some elections are decided by a much smaller margin and election fraud does result in an undeserved win. The Heritage Foundation found that 30 elections across the country had to be thrown out because of such circumstances. These were all local elections (mayoral, city council, etc), and 24 of the 30 elections were in red states: Louisiana, Florida, Mississippi, Texas, Alabama, Georgia, North Carolina, West Virginia, and Indiana, all of which require photo ID. 

Claims of election fraud are incredibly overblown and far from solely a blue state problem as Trump has suggested, even using conservative data. Yet Republicans have still passed the SAVE Act in the house, which would require documentary proof of U.S. citizenship to vote. 

             Democrats fear this will disenfranchise voters rather than prevent fraud. But a new study claims that neither of these are the case. Comparing election results in states with voter ID laws and those without, from 2008 to 2016, accounting for variables like race, researchers from the National Bureau for Economic Research, found no correlation with stricter laws and disenfranchisement or preventing fraud (as the data above suggests). As usual it seems both Republicans and Democrats are making much ado about nothing, at the cost of the taxpayer. 

             The Founding Fathers had it right when they decentralized elections and gave the power to the states. Voting fraud does happen, but not at a rate that Americans need to fear. In fact it seems like we are more justified fearing a passing thunderstorm. 

             So while Trump’s claims distract and disturb many Americans, it is important to remember the real pressing issues we face and trust in our process.