Christmas shopping always puts a financial strain on Americans, but with Trump’s tariffs in effect for almost a year and inflation on the rise, this holiday season will hurt more than most. Economic confidence is at a 17-month low according to Gallop. For a president who won on promises to improve America’s finances, this is on track to be a major blow not just to our pocketbooks but to the president as well. 

Let’s start with the good news. Trump’s tariffs have not had as detrimental an impact on the economy as was thought when they were rolled out. In many cases, tariffs have had the intended effect of forcing a more favorable trade agreement for the U.S., such as the November deal with Switzerland. Additionally $200 billion has been collected from tariffs that can be used to benefit the American people. These wins come with some important caveats. The Supreme Court is currently debating the legality of tariffs imposed by the president instead of Congress, which has the power constitutionally. If they are found unconstitutional, the ruling could mean companies like Costco, who have sued the administration for lost earnings, may put a significant dent in that $200 billion, and deals made with foreign governments on the threat of tariffs, could be undermined. In short, this case could put a nail in the coffin of Trump’s economic policy. 

Even if the case is decided in the President’s favor, the American people have already felt the brunt of increased costs from tariffs and inflation. According to Gallup, “fewer than three in 10 adults in the latest poll, 27%, said the economy is getting better, four percentage points below the October reading and the lowest since July 2024. About two-thirds (68%) said the economy is getting worse.” Trump’s replies to such complaints from Americans seem to be that affordability isn’t getting worse, and if it is, “You know, you can give up certain products. You can give up pencils.”… “You don’t need 37 dolls for your daughter — two or three is nice, but you don’t need 37 dolls.” Toys in fact seem to be an area most hit by tariffs, going up in price from 5% to 20% as the majority are made in China, a country still slapped with significant importation tariffs. Electronics are a similar story. As predicted before tariffs were in full effect, products like video game consoles saw few discounts during Cyber Monday. A recent CNBC study found some startling statistics to go along with these price fluctuations. 41% of Americans claim they will spend less this year, and with 57% already carrying debt, it is likely that Americans will still spend, just with credit, worsening debt. Consequently, while tariffs are supposed to help small businesses, higher prices mean more Americans are shopping at big box stores or online, taking business away during the season when these stores need it the most. 

As holiday prices weigh on Americans, worsening trends of debt and affordability, Trump must grapple with the repercussions, as his approval rating drops to just 39%. The Supreme Court’s decision could be a further blow to his administration, leaving Americans dealing with the aftereffects of fruitless economic policy. The President and the GOP should enjoy the holidays while they can, because election season will not be so full of goodwill.