On Dec. 28, 2025, a small group of merchants in Tehran, Iran, began a protest that grew over the next few days as Iranians across the nation rallied against the Islamic Republic.
As Iranian citizens protested dire economic situations and other issues, President Donald Trump posted several messages calling for Iranians to keep protesting, promising that U.S. help was on the way. He even threatened the Iranian regime with military strikes if they shot protestors.
However, on Jan. 15, Trump paused, citing that Iran had agreed not to execute arrested protestors. Though he didn’t mention it, other issues may have played a role in his decision. During the time of the protests, there was no American aircraft carrier in the Middle East, which would have made a successful and decisive strike on Iran hard to achieve. Also, long-time American allies, such as Israel, expressed hesitancy to cooperate in an attack at this time, likely because of fear of Iranian retribution. After that announcement, Iranian regime security forces continued to conduct brutal crackdowns until the protests died out.
Trump’s backpeddling has been a massive disappointment for the people of Iran. Thousands of Iranian citizens were massacred in the streets by security forces. Now, all that is left is the bitter aftertaste of unfulfilled promises. It’s also disappointing for America’s reputation, as the U.S. did not carry through with its explicit threats against Iran. America’s adversaries, who were shocked by the success of the American ousting of Venezuelan President Nicholas Maduro, may not be so afraid anymore.
Trump drew a red line, and Iran crossed that line with the red blood of the thousands of dead protestors. It matters little if Iran backed away from executing more of them in prisons. While the casualty rates are still being counted (which range from anywhere around 3,000 deaths to maybe even 30,000), it’s undeniable that they did the one thing that Trump told them not to do, and yet he had no response. I cannot blame Trump for making a tactical pause based on limited military assets in the Middle East. However, he shouldn’t have made empty promises that he couldn’t keep.
What’s next after all this tragedy? Just this past week, the aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln arrived in the Middle East to bolster American forces in the region. While the current Iran protests are largely dormant, it appears that Trump is still itching to make good on his promises, even if it’s a week late. While the aircraft carrier does give Trump a wider range of options, he faces difficulties, as U.S. allies Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates announced they would not aid any U.S. strikes.
I frankly think that it’s an awkward moment for the Trump Administration. Both America’s allies and adversaries seem to view America in an unflattering light. Also, even with an American aircraft carrier in the region, the likelihood of Iran’s government collapsing from just airstrikes seems unlikely. Trump risks sparking a regional war if Iran lashes back, or a potential power vacuum if Iran falls too quickly. Additionally, the use of military force after the protests have ended feels anticlimactic and will likely garner less support from the American public.
However, despite the appearance of having stamped out the fires of protest, Iran’s government is in trouble. While the protestors may have lost momentum and American support may have been delayed, the death of thousands of Iranians has not resolved the initial economic issues that sparked the protests. The fact that Tehran merchants started such protests, as they are typically in support of the current regime, is also a worrying sign. Middle-class Iranian conservatives (as in supportive of the Iranian regime) find themselves disillusioned by how Iran shows few signs of tackling the pressing issues the country faces, from a nearly worthless Iranian currency to various water shortage crises. If a military strike is not feasible at this time, America could continue pressing its sanctions upon Iran, which would increase the economic woes that caused the protests in the first place. While a collapse of the regime would be unlikely, it may force it to concede to the Iranian people if they don’t want another protest.
Trump is currently negotiating with Iran, and America is demanding that Iran give up its nuclear program, put a cap on its ballistic missile collection, and stop its support for militant groups in the Middle East. Iran has rejected some of these terms already. Some analysts believe that Iran is trying to buy time. While Trump needs to be careful that he doesn’t make a similar blunder as he did a few weeks ago, now is the time to raise the pressure on Iran, lest the sacrifices of the Iranian people be in vain.