Yesterday evening, while most Americans were asleep, missiles fell upon Tehran, Iran. President Donald Trump, in a video posted on Truth Social, declared “major combat operations” against Iran after weeks of inconclusive negotiations in which Iran would not budge on anything.

And so “Operation Epic Fury” began. A flurry of activity followed. Lockdowns were placed in Israel as it joined in on U.S. strikes on Iranian leadership and also fending off Iranian retaliation. Other nations in the Middle East closed their airspace, and some received Iranian attacks and enacted defensive measures in response. Qatar remained unscathed after the Iranian attack, while one civilian was killed by falling debris in the United Arab Emirates. As this article is written, events are rushing by: airspaces are being closed, praise and condemnations are being made, Iran continues to call for a defense of the homeland, oil exports are potentially about to be disturbed as Iran and its proxies are capable of threatening the Strait of Hormuz, missiles are being intercepted over Jerusalem and U.S. bases are under attack.

In his initial message, Trump listed problems with Iran, ranging from past hostage incidents to modern-day funding of terrorist organizations. He cited their refusal of a nuclear deal as a reason for the strikes, claiming that potential Iranian nuclear weapons would constitute a threat to America (and its allies in Europe) in the future. He also appealed to the Iranian people to take over their government, saying that their freedom “is at hand.” Iranians are currently staying indoors or fleeing Tehran, but there is a quiet sense of hope as the long-promised aid has finally arrived.

The rush of events was anticipated for a while, but it feels thrilling, tragic, and tense. The news feeds spew out constant reports, civilians across multiple countries are being killed or injured, and no one can predict what will happen next, as Iran has not yet folded.

Let’s take a step back.

I do not think there will be many people who will mourn the downfall of the Iranian regime, which has (disregarding the uncertain controversy over its nuclear projects) committed terrible acts like funding extremist groups and enacting a repressive regime that slaughtered thousands of its citizens as they protested for better conditions and rights. Ironically, the Iranian regime is calling for the UN to “counter the violation of peace and security” when that is what they themselves have done throughout the region for the past decade. Middle Eastern countries themselves, like Saudi Arabia and Qatar, don’t seem to like Iran that much, especially as they experience Iranian attacks on their territory. It seems many have secretly wished for the Iranian regime’s death, whether for moral or practical concerns.

But this will not be a sweet and decisive victory like what happened in Venezuela. Trump himself recognized this when he stated that the “lives of courageous American heroes may be lost,” indicating the expectation of casualties and a long-term struggle. Indeed, analysts have noted that what the U.S. and Israel are doing in Iran right now isn’t a mere symbolic strike; it’s preparation for sustained air operations. It’s ironic that Trump, who campaigned on ending foreign entanglements, has found himself in the Middle East. After all his heckling of interventionist neocons, he himself has become one. It appears that the neo-isolationist, Western Hemisphere-focused “Donroe Doctrine” is no more.

But even as Iran has the potential to cause damage, it is clearly in a weaker position. The U.S. and Israel outmatch Iran, and even without other Middle Eastern allies directly helping, those allies are indirectly contributing by having to defend against Iranian missiles targeted at them. Iran is trying to strike the U.S. throughout the Middle East broadly, but it will suffer many strikes before it can exhaust America. Either Iran is bluffing in hopes that the U.S. will back off once the operations become mired in attrition, or this is Iran’s last stand. Reza Pahlavi, an exiled Iranian opposition leader and the son of the former Shah of Iran, called on Iranians to be ready to march into the streets once the strikes are over, saying they are “very close to final victory.” 

It’s an inspiring call, but here lies an even greater difficulty: the aftermath. While there are some reports that some opposing political groups in Iran are uniting to resist their greater enemy, the current regime, there’s no certainty that alliances will hold after that common enemy is gone. Trump has said that it is up to the Iranian people to decide what will happen, but Iranians are politically diverse. Some are monarchists supporting the old Shah, while others are communists. There are still hardliner groups, even amongst the youth, that may try to take up the void and double down on the regime’s worst actions. Yes, of course, the Iranian people should take over their government and reform it. But which Iranians will be able to do so? Unless Trump is willing to dedicate American boots on the ground, there may be a civil war between vying Iranian factions or total collapse and anarchy.

In the end, tears should not be shed for the Iranian regime, which is on its deathbed. Those who are for justice and for the Iranian people will recognize that this is what Iranians have wanted: help of any kind, even military intervention. But U.S. officials and Iranian opposition leaders should be wary of making grandiose declarations of victory. There clearly was much planning that went into this operation against Iran, but the Trump Administration appears to be taking a laissez-faire approach to handling the aftermath. Trump needs to talk and coordinate with exiled Iranian opposition leaders, regional Middle Eastern nations, and representatives of Iranian dissident groups in Iran to ensure a safe, smooth transition from the current Iranian regime into a new, stable and preferably democratic government.

This isn’t a movie where the protagonists will win a decisive, quick victory against the big, bad empire. Trump has opened a messy can of worms. And while worms of injustice and terror must be stamped out, it’s going to be a difficult process. America, we’re in another interventionist war for democracy. Whether you love it or hate it, we’re in for the long haul. 

Acknowledgement: The opinions expressed in this article are those of the author, and not necessarily those of Our National Conversation as a whole.