Midterms are coming up and my personal guess is that Democrats will have major victories across several states. This is mainly because that’s how midterms usually go: the party in power (currently the Republicans) tends to lose.

However, one place where Democrats may actually lose in this midterm is the race for the new Californian governor. With Governor Gavin Newsom being unable to run again, there are many candidates clamoring to take his place. But the problem for Democrats is that there are too many.

In California, the top two candidates (regardless of party affiliation) that receive the most votes move onto the general election. Currently, there are about eight Democratic candidates and two Republican candidates. According to most reliable polls, the two Republican candidates are consistently in the lead. The Democratic candidates, with none of them wishing to drop out, have split the Democratic vote.

In a surprising turn, California, a majority Democratic state, may very well have a Republican governor, something that has not happened in about two decades. After several terms of Democratic rule and continuing problems in California, perhaps it is time for new perspectives to try to tackle the state’s problems.

But I worry that if the two Republican candidates are simply MAGA and pro-Trump candidates, then they will not be much better than their Democratic predecessor. Their problem will not be that they will fight too much with the current President, but that they will be forced by Trump to be combative towards the California legislature and population. This would be very unfruitful for Californians in general. 

Even if Republicans somehow occupy both spots in the general election, they should not be cocky and merely try to win a political position. They should think about how they will govern a state that is against their party. This means they must not repeat MAGA slop, but put forward concise, pragmatic solutions that appeal to all Californians that are fed up with issues that have festered under the Democrats. Despite being Republicans, they must appear non-partisan and issue-focused.

The two Republican candidates are former Fox News host Steve Hilton and Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco. Hilton is a former British political strategist (an Englishman governing California is a strange prospect, indeed) who has written about decentralization and populism. Bianco has recently been on the news for trying to seize thousands of voting ballots in his county as part of a probe into supposed voter fraud concerning the Proposition 50 vote.

For all the talk from analysts about the next election possibly locking out Democrats and leaving two Republicans to contest against each other, both Bianco and Hilton are not cocky. They dismiss the idea and expect to face off a Democrat. Hence, both are actually flinging mud at one another despite being on the same side. However, when it comes to their actual policies, they are fairly similar. They both push a deregulation agenda, want to boost oil production, cut the state budget, and other typically fiscally-conservative policies. They do, however, seem to be emphasizing different aspects. Bianco seems to be taking a more “outsider,” anti-crime approach, while Hilton emphasizes an anti-spending and anti-regulation approach.

As a Californian on the ground here, the more pressing issue seems to be California’s large spending deficits and enormous budget. While crime is still high in some places in California, this varies by region and it would not make sense to run a statewide campaign on combating crime when some communities (such as suburbs with large independent and Republican voter blocs) do not feel the impacts of crime. But high living costs, taxes on oil and the housing crisis affects every Californian. Due to this, Hilton appears to be the more appealing candidate.

Also, Bianco’s rhetoric and recent actions involving seizing voting ballots makes him look too extreme and too aligned to Trump’s MAGA movement. Hilton seems like a more traditional Republican who is more concerned about fiscal issues—and most Californians agree that this state has not run its finances well. However, I worry also that some of Hilton’s rhetoric can be trying to appeal to a MAGA base too much. For example, he wants a “CalDOGE,” referring to Elon Musk’s federal Department of Government Efficiency which faced controversies before being ended last year. There definitely needs to be a review over California’s budget, but we should not repeat Musk’s mistakes.

Again, both Republican candidates, if they want to win and genuinely desire to help the state, should not be focused on catering to a MAGA base. Most Republicans in California are already yearning for change, and do not need persuasion to vote Republican. However, these candidates will have to appeal to Democrats and Independents. This means being pragmatic and focused on finances, the heart of what ails California currently.