This Tuesday, May 19th, Rep. Massie lost the Republican primary against Trump-backed Ed Gallrein. This race was a litmus test to see whether Rep. Massie had what it takes to go directly against Trump as a GOP politician and get away with it politically.

It is not the first time President Trump has targeted GOP politicians who go against his agenda, and it most certainly won’t be the last. Famously, former Rep. Liz Cheney, who became a staunch anti-Trumper after the January 6th riots, was ousted handily by Trump and his allies in a 2022 Republican primary. In fact, out of the 10 Republicans who voted for Trump’s impeachment, 8 of them either resigned or lost their place against Trump-chosen candidates. This illustrates that even when Trump was out of office during the 2022 midterms, he wielded enough influence to successfully target his detractors in the party.

However, that midterm sent mixed signals, given that Governor DeSantis of Florida had won so handily. DeSantis was starting to gain real prominence in the GOP, and once again, Trump’s hold on the GOP was being threatened. At one point, a mere month after the 2022 midterms, DeSantis led Trump in a head-to-head presidential primary race, with 52% of likely GOP voters supporting DeSantis and only 38% favoring Trump. 

That bolstered a narrative that Trump had lost his mojo and that his grip on the GOP had weakened in the hands of a new superstar of the GOP, DeSantis. In reality? When the election season began for the Republican Presidential primary, Trump pummelled DeSantis, left, right, and center. The result was a rather comprehensive loss for DeSantis when he ran for President in 2024, with Trump even beating the Florida Governor in his home state. Trump was again crowned the king of the GOP.

The Kentucky race for Rep. Massie has a similar feel, yet is different. As Trump’s second term takes hits among the MAGA base, there was a narrative building that Trump was again starting to lose his base. The argument had merits, given a split amongst right-wing influencers on the President’s approach towards Iran and the Epstein Files. Tucker Carlson, a prominent cheerleader of MAGA, broke with the administration due to the war. Former Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, another outspoken supporter of MAGA, broke with Trump, and so here there was a divide that was clear to see among the right-wing base. Some of this is borne out in the data. Trump’s approval rating is only 39 percent, according to a Fox Poll, and compared to 2018, far more Americans think his policies will hurt the country:

(Source: Fox News Poll)

However, general unpopularity does not necessarily translate into a lack of support among core GOP spaces. Trump has institutional power as a known entity in GOP spaces, and he has access to plenty of political spending and media influence. As a result, he was able to get Rep. Massie’s opponent, Ed Gallrein, over the line. While Massie was able to garner a following among the “anti-war” right, it proved to be insufficient against Trump’s political machine.

That being said, Massie still ran a competitive campaign and lost by 9 percentage points. That may seem like a lot, but I would argue that, given it was not a complete blowout, with Massie getting 45% of the vote, both sides can take their own victory.

Trump can claim victory by demonstrating that, yet again, he was able to take out a GOP member who went against him. Massie can claim that, despite the Trump political machine being used against him, he was able to walk away with a respectable amount of support.

In the near term, Trump has reclaimed his throne; however, in the increasingly loud anti-interventionist part of the GOP base, Thomas Massie has garnered support, and if he can sustain it, he can be a significant force in a post-Trump GOP.

Trump remains the king of the GOP, but Massie’s politics may well represent the future of right-wing politics. 

Acknowledgement: The opinions expressed in this article are those of the individual author, not necessarily Our National Conversation as a whole

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References:

https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/trump-backed-gallrein-defeats-rep-thomas-massie-in-gop-primary

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-62569056

https://www.politico.com/news/2022/12/14/desantis-trump-gop-primary-voters-00073874

https://www.politico.com/news/2024/03/19/trump-florida-gop-primary-2024-00147898

https://apnews.com/projects/elections-2026/kentucky-primary-results-us-house/#4

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/fox-news-poll-economic-pain-deepens-disapproval-trump-hits-new-high

https://www.pexels.com/search/wooded%20crossroads%20with%20multiple%20paths